A new report from US firm Trender Research predicts that 7% of households will dump their pay-TV provider in favour of some combination of over-the-top video and free-to-air broadcast television by 2012.

“The good news for pay-TV service providers is that the 80/20 rule applies in the case of OTT video,” said Brian Mahony, CEO and Principal Analyst at Trender Research.  “The vast majority of consumers will not consider abandoning the familiarity, comfort, and content of traditional television until several obstacles to OTT adoption are overcome.”

Among the obstacles highlighted in the report for OTT video are limited live TV, sports, and high-definition content, and the relative complexity of setting up and using OTT devices and networks: “However, the OTT market is moving fast,” added Mr. Mahony.  “Judging by the rapid growth of online video consumption on sites like Hulu, and the plethora of enabling devices such as Roku, Xbox, and a range of new HDTV models, our projection may be conservative.”