The number of pay-TV subscribers worldwide is predicted to increase by 8% in 2009 to reach nearly 733mn by year-end, despite a challenging economic environment, according to a new report from Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of Light Reading.

The first quarter update of the research firm's Media Forecast indicates that, considering the current estimates of a 6% decline in global nominal GDP in 2009, adoption levels for pay-TV services worldwide will "undoubtedly hit a speed bump" this year, with year-on-year growth falling from 11% in 2008 to 8% in 2009.  Lower double-digit growth rates across the emerging regions combined with the stabilising effect of multiplay bundles and their increasing penetration (particularly in mature markets) should however prevent the global subscriber base from taking a nose dive, according to the report.

"We started the year with a great sense of uncertainty of the impact of the economic downturn on the pay-TV market, and while much uncertainty remains, pay-TV operators' first-quarter results published to date have not been so bad after all," said Ozgur Aytar, Research Manager at Pyramid Research.  "Most continue to add subscribers, and those that are losing customers are doing so largely as a result of the entry of new competitors."

"The more significant impact of the recession will be felt in customer spending on pay-TV services in 2009, as operators have increasingly been rolling out lower, 'economy' pay-TV and multiplay bundle tariffs to respond to mounting customer demand for less expensive services and to retain subscribers," she added. "By our estimates, average expenditure per pay-TV household will decrease by 6 percent in 2009 worldwide and by as much as 20 percent in some of the emerging markets."

Western European IPTV operators are expected to enjoy the best prospects for the telco TV segment, with IPTV subscribers expected to account for 15% of the region's total pay-TV base by end-2009.  Elsewhere, IPTV's share of subscribers will remain under 5% of the total market, according to Pyramid Research.  Cable TV operators meanwhile are expected to generate over half of the global pay-TV revenue this year.

"The slowdown in the global economy has hit both capex and the speed of broadband network deployments in emerging markets. In order to manage through the perfect storm, operators are scaling back their capex by as much as 20 to 30 percent, and most are holding back on expansion plans but rather focusing on increasing operational leverage in existing markets, which in return is negatively affecting the availability of IPTV services," stated Ms Aytar.