Home arrow Features arrow IBM predicts the end of television as we know it; says industry must take risks on new distribution Sunday, 20 July 2008
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IBM predicts the end of television as we know it; says industry must take risks on new distribution

A report by the IBM Institute for Business warns media companies that they must save money on traditional supply channels and be prepared to experiment in order to chase the lean-forward generation

The television industry has reached a significant fork in the road and the next seven years will be characterized by the need to cater for two very different types of viewer, according to a new White Paper from IBM called The end of television as we know it. Consumers are now falling very clearly into two camps, largely determined by their age: those with a lean-forward mentality who will search for anytime, anywhere content through multiple distribution channels, and generally older people who remain passive in the living room. Thus the challenge for all content owners and distributors, content aggregators and platform operators is to cater for both markets.

Massive Passives

The report, which was commissioned by the IBM Institute for Business Value, notes that today the so-called ‘Massive Passives’ far outnumber the influential early adopting ‘lean-forward’ segment. “Though the mass audience is indeed dwindling, it will take time for technology fluidity, education and customer service to take hold”. As a result, the ‘Generational Chasm’ is the expected state of the TV industry for the coming five to seven years, featuring the co-existence of these two distinct audience types. The report characterises the ‘Massive Passives’ as generally content with their traditional TV experiences and uninspired to change viewing habits drastically in the forecast period (up to 2012). “These device followers are expected to keep the TV as the media centrepiece for the near-term and watch scheduled programming, with growing time-shifting.”

Interactive experience

The lean-forwards, characterised by the report’s authors as ‘Gadgetiers’ and ‘Kool Kids’, seek more experiential interactive video experiences, with heightened control of aggregation, content sources, space-shifting (choosing where video content is viewed), time-shifting, user contribution fo content, and device interoperability. “These early adopters are leading the way toward open distribution models,” the report adds. Gadgetiers spend as much time with their PCs for media experiences as their televisions and the report predicts: “As this group grows over time, it can represent a revenue opportunity for industry incumbents - if compelling content and device/platform extensions can be offered.”

Mobile devices The Kool Kids are distinct in their reliance on content sharing, while mobile devices are the centrepiece of their social and media experiences. “Kool Kids represent revenue cultivation opportunities as the industry works to mitigate or prevent Napster-like propensities,” the authors say. The report warns that ‘one-size-fits-all’ no longer works in this heterogeneous marketplace and to succeed, media companies must now segment their businesses in order to address both types of consumer. “To deliver to bimodal demand, providers will need to develop and operate tandem supply chains and channels,” the authors state. Worryingly for product and infrastructure vendors wedded to the ‘old’ world, the authors also predict: “To maintain the bottom line in this complex environment, executives will have to achieve significant cost savings from the traditional supply chain in order to invest in new delivery channels.”

Taking risks The report says that to avoid losing market position in the long-term, industry participants must be willing to risk aspects of their business today. It advises them to create new innovative content, delivery models, pricing and packages. Companies must dedicate themselves to trials and experimentation, and strive to take content mobile for tech-forward users. They must enable easy synchronisation among devices and provide consumerfriendly services without required user modification. The report concludes: “Players within the TV industry sit on the precipice of an impending upheaval that promises to be no less dramatic than that experienced by the music industry.”

Polish satellite eyes IPTV

Polish satellite operator Cyfrowy Polsat has admitted an interest in DSL as one of the future technologies it may exploit. The company has an internal project to look at the possibility of introducing IPTV. Satellite operators worldwide are considering whether they need two-way networks as TV-on-demand becomes increasingly important. DSL also offers the means to provide a full triple-play offer.

T-Online IPTV in Hungary

T-Online branded IPTV services are expected to be available in Hungary by the end of September. T-Online IPTV will go live across Germany’s major cities this summer as well when Deutsche Telekom’s VDSL network is completed. You can read more about that deployment elsewhere in this issue.

Remote control MaLigne PVRs The next generation of PVRs for France Telecom’s MaLigne TV service will be remotely programmable, according to Luc Heripret, multimedia senior consultant at Sofrecom, the company’s technical consultancy division. This means subscribers will be able to control their in-home recording via the Internet or mobile phones. The new PVRs will be MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 Part 10 compatible, ready for high-definition TV and able to receive digital terrestrial signals. They will be available in 2007. Telecom Italia Microsoft deal

Telecom Italia and Microsoft are working together to develop new cross-platform entertainment solutions for the Italian telco. The aim is to connect PCs, televisions and mobile phones so that they can communicate with each other remotely. The two companies are already working to deliver television, including HDTV, into Telecom Italia homes as part of ‘Alice Home TV’.

Verimatrix CAS for French DSL

Telecom Italia France has selected the Verimatrix Content Authority System (VCAS) to provide the content security for its AliceBox triple-play service. AliceBox was launched in January and provides up to 100 broadcast TV channels on 6Mbps.(plus) connection speeds. VCAS will protect premium content supplied by TPS and Canal+, running on Sagem set-top boxes that support MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 Part 10.

Alcatel MPLS for T-Com VDSL

T-Com, the broadband and fixed network unit of Deutsche Telekom, is deploying Alcatel’s 7750 Service Router as one component of the DSL/IP aggregation network for its VDSL-based triple-play offering. The network is expected to go live this summer. An Alcatel IP/MPLS-based portfolio will provide a foundation for the IPTV service the German incumbent plans to launch once VDSL is enabled. UPC Austria buying DSL

Cable operator UPC Austria has agreed to acquire Inode, a company offering xDSL and ISP-type services. The company sees the deal as a way to expand its footprint in Austria beyond its existing HFC network. Mike Fries, president and CEO of Liberty Global (which owns UPC), says: “Inode’s advanced DSL infrastructure allows us to deliver high-end data and voice services on a national scale and we will leverage our own UPC Austria infrastructure to gain further synergies.”

Swisscom backs VDSL

Adrian Bult, CEO and president of Swisscom Fixnet, is confident his company can offer “IPTV and service experiences that go far beyond what is available on cable." His company is deploying a VDSL network using technology from Ikanos Communications, a provider of ‘Fiber Fast’ broadband solutions.

SmartVision TV Version 2.0

Grass Valley (part of Thomson) has unveiled new features for its SmartVision end-to-end TV platform. Version 2.0 supports multi-terminal home infrastructures, covering TVs, PCs, hybrid DTT/IP set-top boxes and mobile phones. It also supports multiple streams per terminal (SD, HD, MPEG-2, MPEG-4 Part 10) and format-agnostic content delivery. Grass Valley says it will enable seamless convergence with mobile TV services.

Thomson gain in Mauritius

Mauritius Telecom Group has selected Grass Valley’s (Thomson’s) SmartVision TV service platform for its IPTV rollout. The system will support more than 50,000 subscribers eventually, Thomson says, with 10,000 expected this year. Services will include VOD and live TV from both satellite and terrestrial feeds. Grass Valley has also provided MPEG-4 Part 10 encoders as part of its SmartCast TV headend solution. SkyStream in at FASTWEB The Italian IPTV provider FASTWEB has introduced a SkyStream Mediaplex-20 headend system to encode 36 channels of its FASTWEB TV service in MPEG-2. Mediaplex-20 is a dense headend-in-a box designed for the IPTV environment. It supports MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 Part 10 (H.264/AVC) encoding, plus fully integrated MPEG-2 to MPEG-4 Part 10 transcoding. The system also provides video multiplexing and de-multiplexing, and video rate-shaping.

Siemens helps German VDSL

Siemens is supplying DSLAMs, Gigabit Ethernet switches and Broadband Remote Access Servers (BRAS) to T-Com for its VDSL network in Germany, which will be completed in 10 cities this summer. The multiservice-capable IPDSLAMs enable VDSL2-based transmission up to 50Mbps instead of the 16Mbps possible on T-Com’s ADSL.

Hard to make money in IPTV

Telcos will struggle to make a commercial success of video according to Mike Fries, CEO of Liberty Global (which owns the pan-European cable operator UPC Broadband. He says telco video services are a threat to the cable industry but wonders how they can make money from a “me too” service. Fries told the ECCA Congress cable conference late February that cable operators must press ahead with fast digital roll-outs to counter IPTV deployments

Latens CAS deployments

Software-based CA provider Latens Systems has unveiled a number of new IPTV customers including Ringgold Telephone Company, which offers HD, VOD, SVOD and PVR in Georgia, USA. The CA system is tightly coupled there with TVN, the C-Cor VOD solution, and Minerva’s iTV Manager.

Canal Digital's iTV innovations

Canal Digital has launched three new interactive services on its IPTV platform including a game portal with Black Jack and Sudoku. Karaoke On Demand is added, plus PlasmaArt, which is a set of video themes like aquariums and fire places that can be used as on-demand ‘screensavers’ on TV sets. These innovations have been provided by service aggregator Accedo Broadband, working on the Kreatel set-top box platform.

Advanced WiFi home networks

Pioneer Telephone Cooperative, a leading provider of commercial IPTV services, is beginning a customer trial of an advanced WiFi based wireless home networking solution that can support television distribution over standard 802.11g technology. The Ruckus Wireless system uses a multi-directional antenna on the send and receive devices to route signals via the path where it meets least interference.

Lightspeed TV for Nevada

A new housing development called Kiley Ranch in Nevada will be among the first communities to experience the benefits of AT&T’s Project Lightspeed ultra broadband roll-out. Using FTTP, AT&T will make its U-verse services available to new homeowners, including a 200 channel TV, VOD and PVR offer.

US switch-off’s PayTV boost

The new US deadline requiring conversion from analogue to digital TV broadcasting will be a windfall for US PayTV providers, according to a new report from tech research firm Strategy Analytics. Digital TV in the US: 2009 Deadline Creates Windfall for Cable and Competitors, predicts that the February 2009 switch-off date will spur millions of homes to finally sign up for multi-channel services. It says telcos will benefit but predicts the biggest winners will be the cable industry. HDTV World Cup delays

The World Cup finals this summer will not be the launch pad for HDTV after all, according to research company Screen Digest. The opportunity will be partly missed due to lack of HD television sets and set-top boxes. The company has issued a report that is optimistic about the prospects for HD in the longer-term however, pointing to growing sales of flat panel television sets with HD resolution screens, and standardisation around the ‘HD ready’ Europe-wide label.

National 8Mbps BT broadband

The UK incumbent BT is upgrading 5,300 telephone exchanges across the country to support ADSL speeds up to 8Mbps. The upgrade covers 99.6 per cent of UK businesses and homes and will be effective from the end of March. BT estimates that 78 per cent of BT phone lines should support 4Mbps connections or higher, with 6Mbps and above available on 42 per cent of lines. This dramatic upgrade helps prepare the way for a national IPTV launch later this summer.

Promoting CE market for IPTV

A&T, Bellsouth, Verizon and the Consumer Electronics Association in the US have committed to promoting a horizontal CE marketplace for CPE equipment that connects into IP video networks. Interoperability is essential for a retail market and the CE innovation that follows.

 
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