According to ARK Investment Management, Netflix’s subscriber base will more than double in the next five years, growing to 175 million by 2020, up from 75 million in 2015.
In January, Netflix expanded its streaming service to cover 190 countries. With the exception of China, Netflix essentially covers the whole globe.
Netflix’s addressable market is best measured by the number broadband connections. In 2014, there were 750 million fixed-line broadband subscribers globally. ARK estimates broadband subscribers could reach roughly 925 million by 2020. The primary drivers will be growth in China and other developing countries.
In the series of charts below, we show broadband subscribers in the top 25 countries. The “Rest of world” category denotes all other countries not included in the top 25.
Given 926 million broadband connections worldwide, what level of penetration could Netflix achieve? The answer, depends on two factors: the level of interest and the ability to pay for the service.