Global pay TV revenues [subscription fees and on-demand movies and TV episodes] will climb to $209 billion in 2020, up from $193 billion in 2013, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. The Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts report states that the fast growth years are over – as a point of comparison revenues grew by $24 billion between 2010 and 2013.
In fact, revenues in North America will fall by 9.2% (nearly $9 billion) between 2013 and 2020. Western Europe will decline by 1.6%. However, revenues will grow by nearly $15 billion (up by 47%) in the Asia Pacific region. Revenues will more than double in Sub-Saharan Africa to $5 billion.
Simon Murray, author of the report, says: “Based on forecasts for 138 countries, revenues will fall in 18 countries in 2014, with the US dropping by $1.05 billion. Revenues will decline for 21 countries between 2013 and 2020.”
The US will remain the world’s largest pay TV revenue earner by some distance. However, its revenues will fall by $7.9 billion between 2013 and 2020 as homes convert to bundles and as competition forces down prices. Cord cutting will have a limited impact as pay TV penetration will decline from 86.4% in 2013 to 84.1% in 2020. Cable TV revenues will drop by $11.9 billion, with analogue cable TV revenues down from $5.1 billion in 2013 to nothing by 2015. So digital cable TV revenues will also decline – from $37.3 billion in 2013 to $30.5 billion in 2020. However, satellite TV (up by $1.5 billion) and IPTV (up by $2.5 billion) will record growth.
On the other hand, pay TV revenues will more than double in 40 countries between 2013 and 2020. Most of the fast growing nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos and Bangladesh providing notable exceptions. India’s revenues will climb by $6.6 billion between 2013 and 2020, with Brazil up by $2.4 billion and China up by $2.2 billion.
Satellite TV [DTH or DBS] revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2014. Satellite TV revenues will reach $99.9 billion in 2020, up from $69.3 billion in 2010 and $87.8 billion in 2013.
Global cable TV revenues peaked at $90.9 billion in 2011, and will fall to $80.3 billion in 2020. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
Digital cable TV revenues will climb by 18% from $67.2 billion in 2013 to $79.0 billion in 2020 – a faster increase than satellite TV, but not enough to make up for the overall cable TV revenue decline. Analog cable TV revenues will plummet by $19.4 billion between 2013 and 2020 to only $1.4 billion. IPTV revenues will climb to $26.1 billion in 2020, up from $16.0 billion in 2013