Global pay-TV revenues will hit US$ 200bn by 2017, up by US$ 23bn on 2011 but up by only US$ 2bn (1%) on 2016, according to a new report from UK firm Digital TV Research.
The report, which takes account of both subscription and on-demand revenues, adds that DTH (DBS) revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2015, and will reach US$ 91bn in 2017, up from US$ 76bn in 2011.
Simon Murray, report author, said: “Brazil will add the most DTH revenues [US$ 3.86bn] between 2011 and 2017 – nearly doubling its total in the process. The US will grow by US$ 3.1bn, meaning that Brazil and the US will contribute nearly half of the extra revenues.”
He continued: “However, DTH revenues will decline for 17 countries between 2011 and 2017. Much of this is due to greater competition forcing down ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost DTH packages are making a significant impact in several countries.”
Cable TV revenues are expected to begin to slide in 2014, with revenues falling by US$ 3.2bn between 2011 and 2017 to US$ 85bn. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
IPTV revenues are predicted to climb to US$ 21.3bn in 2017, up from US$ 9.7bn in 2011. The US will remain the largest IPTV revenue earner by taking a third of the 2017 total.
Despite being relative newcomers, Verizon’s FiOS TV and AT&T’s U-Verse have made particularly impressive subscriber gains in the US, mainly at the expense of the cable operators, according to the report.
Pay-TV revenues are likely to fall in North America and will only grow by 3.5% in Western Europe. However, Latin America will enjoy a 57.5% increase, followed by Eastern Europe (48.5%) and Asia Pacific (40.1%).
The US will remain the world’s largest pay-TV revenue earner by some distance, according to Digital TV Research. However, its revenues will fall by US$ 1.2bn between 2011 and 2017 as homes convert to bundles and as competition forces down prices.
On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will double over the same period (adding US$ 4.8bn), with India (up US$ 3.2bn) also enjoying impressive growth.